April 06th, 2021

I find it interesting to look back sometimes, and note how the more things change, the more they stay the same. Here is an excerpt from my book Turn Right At Lost (2016) about what turned the tide in the 2016 election. Could history be repeating itself in 2024?

Chapter Six
It is early in January 2016 and the long and exhausting campaign for the White House is at the halfway point. For most people this is like Chinese Water Torture. We have endured four Republican and 3 Democratic debates. We see the candidates act like petulant children, screaming invective, grabbing attention, hurling insults, posing, and backpedaling a lot.

Some of the candidates have pulled out, but there are still nearly a dozen telling the media they are sure they can actually be elected. Unfortunately for most of them though, very few Americans are listening anymore. They are slowly migrating to a few leaders. Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and others have faded into the sunset. Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders , along with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are pretty much what is left to fight it out.
The most compelling story is Donald Trump. He only got into the race in an offhand way when he proposed building a "World class border wall" and "making the Mexican government pay" for it. 
Suddenly, the whole election dynamic changed. Jeb Bush had vested his entire campaign appeal on his competency to manage a big state, to pull it out of financial collapse, and to bring Democrats into the fold. But Trump, who admits he had no idea his proposal would have such an impact, changed everything.
He hit a nerve. 
The country had recently seen a series of unimaginable incidents of foreign immigrants crashing into the country, bringing disease, crime and social pressures on some states that were struggling before the immigration onslaught nearly bankrupted them.

In hindsight, Trump’s spotlight on immigration was a brilliant chess move. It has had the effect of boxing out all of the other candidates, forcing them into a defensive position. He grabbed the spotlight and he hasn’t relinquished it since.
Interestingly, the immigration issue is far from new. In fact, it was something Jeb should have been familiar with, because his brother George was haunted by it. Though GW is remembered for the Iraq War, his administration struggled with immigration for eight years.
I recently uncovered a letter written to GW in 2006. It was written by Ronald Maxwell, a Hollywood writer/producer/director, who is best known for directing “Gettysburg” and “Gods and Generals” about the Civil War.
In his letter he describes in details the extent of damage the US is suffering from the out-of-control invasion of illegal aliens. Ten years ago, a Hollywood media mogul, one of a very few conservatives, implored GW to get up to speed on the unprecedented cultural war happening along our Southern border.
            “It may already be too late to avoid a future annexation of the Southwest by Mexico.” He warns the President that, “the natural weight of demographic change is accompanied by the soundtrack of radical demagoguery which seeks to legitimize and moralize this phenomenon as a Reconquista."
He goes on to characterize the GW administration's immigration policies as captive of big business, looking for cheap labor. That he could ultimately be remembered as the President who won the War In Iraq, only to lose the War Over the Southwest of America. He chastises Bush on behalf of the Senate, which he says shows more concern for immigrants than for American citizens.
                   “The McCain-Kennedy Bill looks like it was drafted by bureaucrats at the United Nations, rather than by representatives of the United States.”
Obviously, George paid no attention to the Maxwell letter, in the same way that many Americans today feel that politicians have paid little or no attention to the promises made in the 2012 midterm elections.
The immigration issue represents the ‘Game Changer’ in this election cycle and Donald Trump, because of his independence, his unrepentant disregard for PC sensibilities, and his outright anger, has placed it front row and center in the Race for the White House in 2016.
Has The Donald just changed history by redefining the terms of the election race? Only time will tell…